Updated on March 3rd, 2025 by Felix Martinez
The Dividend Aristocrats are a select group of 69 companies in the S&P 500 Index that have increased their dividends for 25+ consecutive years. We believe they are among the best dividend stocks to buy and hold for the long term.
Retail heavyweight Walmart Inc. (WMT) is one of the better-known Dividend Aristocrats. It is widely recognized, not just for its strong brand and industry dominance, but also for its long dividend history.
You can see a full downloadable spreadsheet of all 69 Dividend Aristocrats, along with several important financial metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields, by clicking on the link below:
Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.
Walmart’s first dividend was paid in 1974. It has increased its dividend for 52 consecutive years, making it a Dividend King.
Walmart has experienced a resurgence of growth in the past few years by adapting to the changing retail climate. It has invested heavily in its e-commerce platform and proven that it is one of the best-equipped to compete with Amazon.
Business Overview
The first Walmart store opened in 1962 in Rogers, Arkansas. It was founded by Sam Walton, who started the business with a simple vision: to offer the lowest prices. This philosophy led to Walmart’s huge growth over the years.
Walmart went public in 1972. At that time, it had 51 stores, and annual sales of $78 million.
Today, Walmart generates annual sales of more than $700 billion. It operates more than 10,500 stores, serving nearly 230 million customers each week.
Walmart has also expanded into various services, making it a true conglomerate. The Walmart U.S. segment includes retail stores in all 50 U.S. states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico.
It also includes Walmart’s digital business. Walmart International has operations in 25 countries outside the U.S.
Lastly, Sam’s Club is a membership-only warehouse club that operates in 48 states and Puerto Rico.
Growth Prospects
Walmart posted fourth-quarter and full-year earnings on February 20th, 2025, The company reported strong Q4 2025 results, with revenue rising 4.1% to $180.6 billion and operating income up 8.3%. eCommerce grew 16% globally, driven by store-fulfilled pickup and delivery. The company’s advertising business expanded by 29%, boosting profitability. GAAP EPS was $0.65, while adjusted EPS reached $0.66.
For FY25, revenue hit $681 billion (+5.1%), with operating income up 8.6%. Walmart strengthened its financial position with a 7.9% ROA and a 15.5% ROI. The company completed its VIZIO acquisition and raised its dividend by 13% to $0.94 per share, the largest increase in over a decade.
Looking ahead, Walmart projects FY26 net sales growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted operating income growth of 3.5% to 5.5%. Q1 FY26 net sales are expected to rise 3% to 4%, with adjusted EPS between $0.57 and $0.58. The company remains focused on market expansion, supply chain optimization, and eCommerce growth.
Source: Investor Presentation
We currently forecast Walmart to grow its earnings-per-share by 11% per year over the next five years.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
Walmart’s main competitive advantage is its massive scale. Its distribution efficiencies allow Walmart to keep transportation costs low. It can pass on these savings to customers through everyday low prices.
Walmart retains its brand strength through advertising. Because of its immense financial resources, Walmart can afford to spend billions each year on advertising.
Walmart’s competitive advantage also provides the company with steady profitability, even during recessions. The company performed phenomenally well during the Great Recession.
It steadily grew earnings-per-share each year in that time.
- 2007 earnings-per-share of $3.16
- 2008 earnings-per-share of $3.42 (8.2% increase)
- 2009 earnings-per-share of $3.66 (7% increase)
- 2010 earnings-per-share of $4.07 (11% increase)
This was a very impressive performance, in one of the worst recessions in decades. The company continued to generate strong results last year, when the U.S. economy entered recession due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Walmart’s growth indicates the company might actually benefit from recessions. As the low-cost leader in retail, Walmart conceivably sees higher traffic during economic downturns, when consumers scale down from higher-priced retailers.
Valuation & Expected Returns
Walmart shares currently trade at $97. Using our earnings-per-share estimate of $2.65 for the current fiscal year, the stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.6x. This is well above the stock’s historical valuation, which is at a 10-year high.
We currently view a P/E ratio of 25 as fair value for Walmart stock. If the valuation multiple were to revert to our fair value estimate over the next five years, the company’s total returns would decline by 7.0% per year.
Walmart shares have performed very well for an extended period. While this has rewarded shareholders with strong returns, we view Walmart stock as highly overvalued.
Aside from changes in the P/E multiple, Walmart should also generate returns from earnings growth and dividends. A projection of expected returns is below:
- 11.0% earnings-per-share growth
- 1.0% dividend yield
- -7.0% multiple reversion
Walmart stock is projected to generate a total return of 5% per year over the next five years.
Final Thoughts
While many retailers have struggled to adapt to the change in commerce shopping habits, Walmart has made the proper strategic investments, in our view. The company’s impressive e-commerce growth reflects this view.
The company has performed well and the stock is currently trading at an all-time high. We find the company’s dividend track record impressive, even if the most recent dividend hike was 13%.
Walmart is a safe, defensive stock in times of economic hardship, but its rich valuation prevents it from being a buy today. As a result, we rate it a hold.
If you are interested in finding more high-quality dividend growth stocks suitable for long-term investment, the following Sure Dividend databases will be useful:
- The Dividend Kings List is even more exclusive than the Dividend Aristocrats. It is comprised of 54 stocks with 50+ years of consecutive dividend increases.
- The Dividend Achievers List: a group of stocks with 10+ years of consecutive dividend increases.
- The Dividend Champions List: stocks that have increased their dividends for 25+ consecutive years.
Note: Not all Dividend Champions are Dividend Aristocrats because Dividend Aristocrats have additional requirements like being in The S&P 500. - The Monthly Dividend Stocks List: contains stocks that pay dividends each month, for 12 payments per year.
- The 20 Highest Yielding Monthly Dividend Stocks
- The High Dividend Stocks List: high dividend stocks are suited for investors that need income now (as opposed to growth later) by listing stocks with 5%+ dividend yields.
The major domestic stock market indices are another solid resource for finding investment ideas. Sure Dividend compiles the following stock market databases and updates them monthly: