Updated on April 24th, 2024 by Bob Ciura
The Dividend Aristocrats are some of the best dividend growth stocks an investor will find. These companies are in the S&P 500 Index, with 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases.
We believe the Dividend Aristocrats are among the highest-quality dividend growth stocks around. For this reason, we created a downloadable spreadsheet of all 68 Dividend Aristocrats, along with important metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields.
You can download the Excel sheet of all 68 Dividend Aristocrats by clicking the link below:
Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.
Each year, we review all of the Dividend Aristocrats. The next stock in the series is a consumer staple giant Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD).
Church & Dwight might not be as familiar as some of its consumer staple competitors such as Procter & Gamble (PG), Clorox (CLX), or Colgate-Palmolive (CL).
However, Church & Dwight has now increased its dividend for 28 consecutive years. The company’s dividend is also very safe.
This article will discuss Church & Dwight in greater detail.
Business Overview
Church & Dwight is a diversified consumer staples company that manufactures and distributes products under several well-known names like Arm & Hammer, Trojan, OxiClean, Spinbrush, First Response, Waterpik, Nair, Orajel, and XTRA. The company was founded in 1846, and generates over $5 billion in annual revenue.
For more than 100 years, Church & Dwight was a baking soda company operating with only the Arm & Hammer brand. However, since 2001, the Company has acquired 13 of its 14 “power brands.”
Church & Dwight’s acquisitions of leading brands have diversified its reach across the household and personal care space. Also, Church & Dwight has paid quarterly dividends to shareholders for more than 120 years.
Source: Investor Presentation
Church & Dwight posted fourth quarter earnings on February 2nd, 2024, and results were largely in-line with expectations. Adjusted earnings-per-share came to 65 cents, in line with expectations. Revenue was 63% higher year-over-year to $1.53 billion, which was $20 million ahead of estimates.
Net sales performance was +6.4% in the Domestic market, +11.9% in the International segment, and -9.2% in the SPD segment.
Gross margin was 260 basis points higher to 44.6% of revenue on improved pricing, volume, productivity, and the impact of the HERO acquisition. These were partially offset by higher manufacturing costs.
The company says it expects volume to drive growth in 2024. For Q1, the company expects organic revenue growth of 4%. We expect a 7% annual EPS growth over the next five years, comprised mainly of revenue growth and share buybacks.
Growth Prospects
The biggest growth driver for Church & Dwight will be continued organic sales growth, and also acquiring solid brands in the future. Acquisitions have been a major driver in the company’s historical growth.
Source: Investor Presentation
We believe it can achieve this as it sees mid-single-digit revenue growth on average, while a small measure of productivity gains should help drive margins higher.
We also note that the supply chain constraints that arose from the pandemic have gone, and Church & Dwight has seen consistent margin improvement in recent results.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
Church & Dwight’s competitive advantage comes from its willingness to execute acquisitions and growth in organic sales. This growth-by-acquisition strategy gives the company an enduring opportunity to continue growing its business for the foreseeable future.
CHD is also modestly recession-resistant. For example, Church & Dwight’s competitive advantages allow it to maintain consistent profitability each year, even during recessions.
Church & Dwight’s earnings-per-share during the Great Recession are below:
- 2007 earnings-per-share of $0.63
- 2008 earnings-per-share of $0.72 (13% increase)
- 2009 earnings-per-share of $0.87 22% increase)
- 2010 earnings-per-share of $0.99 (14% increase)
Durning the COVID-19 pandemic, earnings grew from $2.47 per share in 2019 to $2.83 per share in 2020. This represents an increase of 15% year-over-year.
CHD’s dividend payout is also recession-proof. Church & Dwight’s payout ratio has drifted below 40% in recent years. The dividend has been growing at a slightly slower rate than earnings-per-share, so over time we expect the payout ratio will remain under 40% as the company is able to continue to produce meaningful earnings growth.
Valuation & Expected Returns
Based on expected EPS of $3.45 for 2024, Church & Dwight’s stock trades for a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.1. CHD held an average price-to-earnings ratio of ~26 over the past ten years.
We think that a fair earning multiple is 27.0. Consequently, based on its average valuation multiples, Church & Dwight’s stock appears to be overvalued.
If the company stock experiences a decline in the valuation multiple to our fair P/E of 27.0, it will reduce annual shareholder returns by 2.8% annually over the next five years.
Earnings growth and dividends will positively impact future returns. First, we expect CHD to grow earnings-per-share by 7% per year through the next five years.
Lastly, CHD stock has a dividend yield of 1.1%. Putting it all together, a breakdown of our expected future returns is as follows:
- 7.0% expected earnings-per-share growth
- 1.1% dividend yield
- -2.7% negative return from valuation contraction
In this projection, total shareholder returns could reach 5.4% annualized over the next five years.
Final Thoughts
Church & Dwight has many of the characteristics of a high-quality dividend investment. Most notably, the company’s portfolio of brands allows it to grow its earnings through most years no matter which stage of the economic cycle we’re at.
Also, Church & Dwight shares its growth with its shareholders through consistent dividend increases.
The company’s growth-through-acquisition strategy is time-tested, and its management team has developed considerable expertise in scaling smaller brands through its existing infrastructure.
We forecast total returns accruing at 5.4% annually, giving CHD stock a hold rating.
Additionally, the following Sure Dividend databases contain the most reliable dividend growers in our investment universe:
- The Dividend Contenders List: 10-24 consecutive years of dividend increases.
- The Dividend Challengers List: 5-9 consecutive years of dividend increases.
- The Dividend Champions: Dividend stocks with 25+ years of dividend increases, including those that may not qualify as Dividend Aristocrats.
- The Dividend Achievers: dividend stocks with 10+ years of consecutive dividend increases.
- The Dividend Kings: considered to be the ultimate dividend growth stocks, the Dividend Kings list is comprised of stocks with 50+ years of consecutive dividend increases
If you’re looking for stocks with unique dividend characteristics, consider the following Sure Dividend databases:
- The Complete List of Monthly Dividend Stocks: stocks that pay dividends each month, for 12 payments over the year.
- The Blue Chip Stocks List: this database contains stocks that qualify as either Dividend Achievers, Dividend Aristocrats, or Dividend Kings.
The major domestic stock market indices are another solid resource for finding investment ideas. Sure Dividend compiles the following stock market databases and updates them monthly: